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Oct 28

SimplexUQ: An Evaluation Framework and Benchmark for Conformal Uncertainty on Simplex-Valued Predictions

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a single calibration threshold can still spread that coverage unevenly, over-covering easy regions and under-covering hard ones. SimplexUQ is, to our knowledge, the first benchmark and reproducible protocol for measuring this allocation problem on simplex-valued predictions; it compares existing conformal wrappers rather than proposing a new one. Its task suite, SimplexTasks-12, combines six controlled synthetic regimes with six frozen-predictor real tasks spanning class probabilities, topic mixtures, spectral abundances, cell-type fractions, age distributions, and emotion mixtures. Each comparison fixes the predictor, score, and response-free stratification map, varies only the wrapper, and reports marginal coverage, worst-stratum coverage, max disparity, and within-task radius and compute. Global calibration can look valid while failing badly: on CIFAR-10 it attains 0.900 marginal coverage but only 0.542 in the worst entropy stratum, and Mondrian calibration raises that stratum to 0.886 while reducing max disparity from 0.358 to 0.022. No wrapper dominates, however. Under smooth synthetic heterogeneity, several repairs are competitive; fixed-map analyses show that rankings depend on the evaluation groups and protocol; and in a 12-task comparison, Mondrian has lower disparity on its single target partition for all 12 tasks, whereas BatchMVP has lower disparity over overlapping groups on five. These are empirical comparisons, not new coverage guarantees. A controlled predictor-bias sweep shows that removing predictor bias only partly reduces global-threshold disparity. We release task cards, result provenance, permitted derived arrays, and rebuild instructions, and treat wrapper selection as a diagnostic comparison rather than a universal ranking.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 29

Efficient Encoding of Graphics Primitives with Simplex-based Structures

Grid-based structures are commonly used to encode explicit features for graphics primitives such as images, signed distance functions (SDF), and neural radiance fields (NeRF) due to their simple implementation. However, in n-dimensional space, calculating the value of a sampled point requires interpolating the values of its 2^n neighboring vertices. The exponential scaling with dimension leads to significant computational overheads. To address this issue, we propose a simplex-based approach for encoding graphics primitives. The number of vertices in a simplex-based structure increases linearly with dimension, making it a more efficient and generalizable alternative to grid-based representations. Using the non-axis-aligned simplicial structure property, we derive and prove a coordinate transformation, simplicial subdivision, and barycentric interpolation scheme for efficient sampling, which resembles transformation procedures in the simplex noise algorithm. Finally, we use hash tables to store multiresolution features of all interest points in the simplicial grid, which are passed into a tiny fully connected neural network to parameterize graphics primitives. We implemented a detailed simplex-based structure encoding algorithm in C++ and CUDA using the methods outlined in our approach. In the 2D image fitting task, the proposed method is capable of fitting a giga-pixel image with 9.4% less time compared to the baseline method proposed by instant-ngp, while maintaining the same quality and compression rate. In the volumetric rendering setup, we observe a maximum 41.2% speedup when the samples are dense enough.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 26, 2023

Judging LLMs on a Simplex

Automated evaluation of free-form outputs from large language models (LLMs) is challenging because many distinct answers can be equally valid. A common practice is to use LLMs themselves as judges, but the theoretical properties of this approach are not yet well understood. We show that a geometric framework that represents both judges and candidates as points on a probability simplex can provide helpful insight on what is or is not identifiable using LLM judges. Our theoretical analysis uncovers a "phase transition" in ranking identifiability: for binary scoring systems, true rankings are identifiable even with weak judges under mild assumptions, while rankings become non-identifiable for three or more scoring levels even with infinite data, absent additional prior knowledge. This non-identifiability highlights how uncertainty in rankings stems from not only aleatoric uncertainty (i.e., inherent stochasticity in the data) but also epistemic uncertainty regarding which assumptions hold, an aspect that has received limited attention until now. To integrate both types of uncertainty, we use Bayesian inference to encode assumptions as priors and conduct sensitivity analysis of ranking estimates and credible intervals. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that Bayesian inference yields more accurate rankings and substantially improves coverage rates. These results underscore the importance of taking a more holistic approach to uncertainty quantification when using LLMs as judges.

  • 4 authors
·
May 28, 2025

Standard Quadratic Formulations of Many NP Problems: A Simplex-Based Compilation Framework for Combinatorial Optimization

The standard quadratic program (StQP) minimizes a quadratic form over nonnegative variables that sum to one. We compose classical graph reductions with regularized Motzkin--Straus clique formulations to express discrete optimization problems in this continuous domain. The graph matrix has diagonal entries τ, zeros on edges, and ones on nonedges. For 0<τ<1, its minimum is τ/ω(G), where ω(G) is the clique number. Its strict local minimizers are precisely the uniform distributions on maximal cliques, and its global minimizers encode maximum cliques. At τ=1/2, integer scaling gives coefficients in {0,1,2} and minimum 1/ω(G), yielding an NP-complete StQP threshold problem with a restricted coefficient alphabet. We give explicit formulations for satisfiability, coloring, Hamiltonian cycles, independent set, vertex cover, set packing, three-dimensional matching, and graph isomorphism. A regularized weighted clique formulation combined with local-state compatibility graphs gives an exact compiler for finite-domain factor models specified by complete local tables, including QUBO, with at most four simplex coordinates per binary pair factor. The catalog covers Karp's 21 problems: twelve use direct graph formulations, and nine use factor-state formulations, including six obtained through binary-linear feasibility. For each route we record dimensions, coefficient structure, and recovery rules. We analyze interaction count, coefficient range, objective separation, perturbation tolerance, support recovery, and decoding overhead. The separation bounds quantify the effects of clique size, factor weights, and offsets. In the complete factor-state construction, every assignment, including each suboptimal assignment, is a strict local minimum.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 30