FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction
Paper • 2508.11987 • Published • 72
Datasets:
id stringlengths 24 24 | prompt stringlengths 344 590 | end_time stringdate 2026-09-23 18:30:00+0800 2026-09-29 23:59:59+0800 | level int64 1 4 | en_title stringlengths 49 182 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
3ddfe6f07c5a0bf6e42919c8 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley remain No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 dated 3 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, Choosin' Texas remains No. 1
B. the outcome be No, a different title is... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley remain No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 dated 3 October 2026? |
f99b2c231aa072c62e52ea58 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley remain No. 1 on the ARIA Top 50 Singles chart for the week of 28 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, Choosin' Texas remains No. 1
B. the outcome be No,... | 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley remain No. 1 on the ARIA Top 50 Singles chart for the week of 28 September 2026? |
f0f5c9f2675f0f76ff45bc30 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Dai dai by Shakira x Burna Boy remain No. 1 on the Ultratop 50 Flanders singles chart dated 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-26T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, Dai dai remains No. 1
B. the outcome be No, a diffe... | 2026-09-26T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Dai dai by Shakira x Burna Boy remain No. 1 on the Ultratop 50 Flanders singles chart dated 26 September 2026? |
71ec07da0173d2f463320fe2 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which album will be No. 1 on the Billboard 200 dated 3 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Dandelion — Ella Langley
B. the outcome be you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love — Olivia Rodrigo
C... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 2 | Which album will be No. 1 on the Billboard 200 dated 3 October 2026? |
d6ce79e46fbcc031104735d8 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which album will be No. 1 on the ARIA Top 50 Albums chart for the week of 28 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love — Olivia Rodrigo
B. the outcome be Th... | 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Which album will be No. 1 on the ARIA Top 50 Albums chart for the week of 28 September 2026? |
fddaad8ae280656d5dfc12c8 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which artist will rank No. 1 on the Billboard Artist 100 dated 3 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
IMPOR... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | Which artist will rank No. 1 on the Billboard Artist 100 dated 3 October 2026? |
9e1471107d464690c66c49b3 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What exact song will rank No. 1 on Circle Chart's 2026 Week 38 Streaming Chart? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
IMPO... | 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | What exact song will rank No. 1 on Circle Chart's 2026 Week 38 Streaming Chart? |
bd34683d7dea0c0769b30424 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What exact song will rank No. 1 on the ARIA Top 20 Australian Singles chart for the week of 28 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, wi... | 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What exact song will rank No. 1 on the ARIA Top 20 Australian Singles chart for the week of 28 September 2026? |
aac50956b86e38a10f68ca9d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What ordered top five films will Box Office Mojo report in Domestic Weekend 39 actuals for 25–27 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, ... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 4 | What ordered top five films will Box Office Mojo report in Domestic Weekend 39 actuals for 25–27 September 2026? |
d761c6def1f2de15bc9c21d3 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What ordered top five singles will Ultratop 50 Wallonia publish for 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-26T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentar... | 2026-09-26T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What ordered top five singles will Ultratop 50 Wallonia publish for 26 September 2026? |
f0e4b80978a34e8ea196d557 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will the Swiss National Bank do with the SNB policy rate at the 24 September 2026 monetary policy assessment? (resolved around 2026-09-24T17:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Raise the SNB policy rate above 0%
B. the outcome be Keep... | 2026-09-24T17:00:00+08:00 | 1 | What will the Swiss National Bank do with the SNB policy rate at the 24 September 2026 monetary policy assessment? |
fbf1ac52fdd632fefaafaf23 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be at least 4.5% in August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, 4.5% or higher
B. the outcome be No, below 4.5%
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_R... | 2026-09-24T12:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be at least 4.5% in August 2026? |
6a895de854c9153ecc35aaa2 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 be at least 53.0? (resolved around 2026-09-23T22:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, 53.0 or higher
B. the outcome be No, below 53.0
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RELEA... | 2026-09-23T22:30:00+08:00 | 1 | Will the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 be at least 53.0? |
569b6b32983c3ee0b27a7b3c | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Hong Kong's Composite CPI inflation be at least 1.8% year on year in August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-23T18:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, 1.8% or higher
B. the outcome be No, below 1.8%
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RE... | 2026-09-23T18:30:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Hong Kong's Composite CPI inflation be at least 1.8% year on year in August 2026? |
a6871ee8db597ba2796bfbb2 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims occupy for the week ending 19 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T21:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 189,000 or fewer
B. the outcome be 190,000 to 209,000
C. the ... | 2026-09-24T21:30:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims occupy for the week ending 19 September 2026? |
d91d9a1f61c25a25c866651b | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the seasonally adjusted annual rate of U.S. new single-family houses sold occupy in August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 549,000 or fewer
B. the outcome be 550,000 to 599,000
C. t... | 2026-09-24T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will the seasonally adjusted annual rate of U.S. new single-family houses sold occupy in August 2026? |
e45a584c4e13fc83c36f770f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the euro-area Economic Sentiment Indicator occupy in September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T18:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 97.4 or lower
B. the outcome be 97.5 to 98.4
C. the outcome be 98.5 to 99.4
D. the out... | 2026-09-29T18:30:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will the euro-area Economic Sentiment Indicator occupy in September 2026? |
c947a8501496aa30a8c3f9d9 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will Canada's all-industries real GDP monthly change occupy in the official July 2026 print? (resolved around 2026-09-29T22:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be -0.2% or lower
B. the outcome be -0.1% to 0.0%
C. the outcome be 0.... | 2026-09-29T22:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will Canada's all-industries real GDP monthly change occupy in the official July 2026 print? |
2264b50d2a4ad1f92b3c73f2 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will the value of Hong Kong's total exports of goods be in August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T18:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
Report ... | 2026-09-28T18:30:00+08:00 | 4 | What will the value of Hong Kong's total exports of goods be in August 2026? |
0d012fb4888de2d09599abb3 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey general business activity index be in September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T23:59:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract,... | 2026-09-28T23:59:00+08:00 | 4 | What will the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey general business activity index be in September 2026? |
98bbd192a30f968b27adee56 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What All items index will the Bank of Japan report in the preliminary Services Producer Price Index for August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T10:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contra... | 2026-09-28T10:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What All items index will the Bank of Japan report in the preliminary Services Producer Price Index for August 2026? |
7329fc042ba9a833beec3fbd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Norges Bank keep the policy rate at 4.25% at its 24 September 2026 announcement? (resolved around 2026-09-24T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, policy rate remains 4.25%
B. the outcome be No, policy rate is changed
C. the out... | 2026-09-24T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Norges Bank keep the policy rate at 4.25% at its 24 September 2026 announcement? |
32f1e9e01434dbb55b72364f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the NWSL match between Kansas City Current and Denver Summit FC on 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-27T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Kansas City Current
B. the outcome be Denver Summit FC
C. the outcome be ... | 2026-09-27T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the NWSL match between Kansas City Current and Denver Summit FC on 26 September 2026? |
8cb930be04fc99d319b5d04a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the WNBA regular-season finale between the Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx on 24 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Minnesota Lynx
B. the outcome be Indiana Fever
C. the outcome... | 2026-09-25T14:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the WNBA regular-season finale between the Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx on 24 September 2026? |
642b810b0156e0bcf4018918 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What maximum temperature will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Perth on 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-27T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no un... | 2026-09-27T16:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What maximum temperature will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Perth on 26 September 2026? |
214858a6ecd18913db240b57 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many filtered hail reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or c... | 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many filtered hail reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 26 September 2026? |
8b1f8ce89de462bf7f804c2f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Rank Sydney, Hobart, and Brisbane from highest to lowest BOM daily maximum temperature on 26 September 2026. (resolved around 2026-09-27T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with... | 2026-09-27T16:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Rank Sydney, Hobart, and Brisbane from highest to lowest BOM daily maximum temperature on 26 September 2026. |
25ce31cebc89edb22c763847 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Rank Taal, Bulusan, and Kanlaon from most to fewest volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS bulletins dated 26 September 2026. (resolved around 2026-09-26T18:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement con... | 2026-09-26T18:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Rank Taal, Bulusan, and Kanlaon from most to fewest volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS bulletins dated 26 September 2026. |
744283163b771812936a763d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquakes will USGS record worldwide from 00:00 UTC 23 September through 00:00 UTC 25 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by ... | 2026-09-25T12:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquakes will USGS record worldwide from 00:00 UTC 23 September through 00:00 UTC 25 September 2026? |
dca892bfbf871ba55578f599 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the ordered USGS place labels of the three largest earthquakes worldwide from 00:00 UTC 26 September through 00:00 UTC 28 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value... | 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What will be the ordered USGS place labels of the three largest earthquakes worldwide from 00:00 UTC 26 September through 00:00 UTC 28 September 2026? |
38391d504f9c16e6d3a524c5 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What net change in Lower-48 working gas will EIA print in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending 18 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the... | 2026-09-25T08:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What net change in Lower-48 working gas will EIA print in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending 18 September 2026? |
50fb7b52f26cbac9195dca79 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What value will the ifo Institute publish for the Germany Business Climate Index in September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units... | 2026-09-24T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What value will the ifo Institute publish for the Germany Business Climate Index in September 2026? |
30fb5e377f8256c57ef7663b | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What ordered top five albums will Circle Chart publish on its 2026 Week 38 Album Chart? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commenta... | 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 | 4 | What ordered top five albums will Circle Chart publish on its 2026 Week 38 Album Chart? |
be5e9bf6c79f20502f76593b | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What daily maximum temperature will the Hong Kong Observatory report at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters station on 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-27T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required ... | 2026-09-27T16:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What daily maximum temperature will the Hong Kong Observatory report at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters station on 26 September 2026? |
96a4cdc16a4396cbb57cf398 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What daily rainfall total will the Hong Kong Observatory report at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters station on 27 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by th... | 2026-09-28T16:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What daily rainfall total will the Hong Kong Observatory report at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters station on 27 September 2026? |
1e2536c7f760729b74f4bbad | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What monthly purchase-only U.S. house price index level will FHFA publish for July 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or comment... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 4 | What monthly purchase-only U.S. house price index level will FHFA publish for July 2026? |
ec5ec0831fb4bef06f0c2e28 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What daily minimum temperature will the Hong Kong Observatory report at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters station on 28 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required ... | 2026-09-29T16:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What daily minimum temperature will the Hong Kong Observatory report at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters station on 28 September 2026? |
aab047e6c7a4582cd34a77bc | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will UKHSA's 24 September 2026 weekly all-cause mortality surveillance report mark a high-mortality signal for England, all ages combined, in the latest week of occurrence presented? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the ... | 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will UKHSA's 24 September 2026 weekly all-cause mortality surveillance report mark a high-mortality signal for England, all ages combined, in the latest week of occurrence presented? |
258072788fd16ec8e7343af0 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will UKHSA's week-39 norovirus and rotavirus report show at least 500 positive norovirus laboratory reports in England across weeks 35 to 38 of 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be ... | 2026-09-24T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will UKHSA's week-39 norovirus and rotavirus report show at least 500 positive norovirus laboratory reports in England across weeks 35 to 38 of 2026? |
f3b74e7ba9cdbe0a36771018 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will the next Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report covering 7 to 20 September 2026 print at least 35,000 notified influenza cases in that fortnight? (resolved around 2026-09-26T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcom... | 2026-09-26T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will the next Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report covering 7 to 20 September 2026 print at least 35,000 notified influenza cases in that fortnight? |
5bc966131b0ae98af5128602 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which band will UKHSA's week-39 flu and COVID-19 report print for England influenza rolling 7-day positivity on the most recent Sunday? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be under 2.5%
B. the outcome be 2.5% to... | 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 | 2 | Which band will UKHSA's week-39 flu and COVID-19 report print for England influenza rolling 7-day positivity on the most recent Sunday? |
47f102ab2d856f038cb71142 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which band will Hong Kong CHP's COVID-19 & Flu Express print for week-38 seasonal-influenza respiratory-specimen positivity? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be under 11.00%
B. the outcome be 11.00% to under ... | 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 | 2 | Which band will Hong Kong CHP's COVID-19 & Flu Express print for week-38 seasonal-influenza respiratory-specimen positivity? |
8d47345fd0258dee4c40788c | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which band will China CDC report for national sentinel outpatient ILI influenza-virus positivity in surveillance week 38 of 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be under 18.0%
B. the outcome be 18.0% to und... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 2 | Which band will China CDC report for national sentinel outpatient ILI influenza-virus positivity in surveillance week 38 of 2026? |
e0d4b870bb11f6b1a719236b | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many influenza-like-illness outbreaks will China CDC report nationwide for surveillance week 38 of 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with... | 2026-09-29T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | How many influenza-like-illness outbreaks will China CDC report nationwide for surveillance week 38 of 2026? |
3239fe02babf5822cb290223 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many deaths will NISRA report as registered in Northern Ireland in the week ending 18 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no... | 2026-09-25T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many deaths will NISRA report as registered in Northern Ireland in the week ending 18 September 2026? |
87f055ea88fda70cfdaf5a4e | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many dengue fever cases will Singapore CDA print for epidemiological week 37 of 2026 in its Weekly Infectious Diseases Bulletin? (resolved around 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the s... | 2026-09-24T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | How many dengue fever cases will Singapore CDA print for epidemiological week 37 of 2026 in its Weekly Infectious Diseases Bulletin? |
acd1ae2196a5bb9860270849 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many deaths will ONS report as registered in England and Wales in the week ending 11 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-23T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no ... | 2026-09-23T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | How many deaths will ONS report as registered in England and Wales in the week ending 11 September 2026? |
7b18b0c49b99b122ff2754c1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many seats will RNI win in Morocco's 23 September 2026 House of Representatives election? (resolved around 2026-09-29T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 89 or fewer
B. the outcome be 90 to 101
C. the outcome be 102 to 114
D. the ou... | 2026-09-29T20:00:00+08:00 | 2 | How many seats will RNI win in Morocco's 23 September 2026 House of Representatives election? |
ca69545496f89237c6d18797 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What nationwide popular-vote Yes share will the Neutrality Initiative receive on 27 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Below 30.0%
B. the outcome be 30.0% to 39.9%
C. the outcome be 40.0% to ... | 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What nationwide popular-vote Yes share will the Neutrality Initiative receive on 27 September 2026? |
4a04bd356b177740bde4c7ca | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What official nationwide popular-vote Yes percentage will the Food Initiative receive on 27 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with ... | 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What official nationwide popular-vote Yes percentage will the Food Initiative receive on 27 September 2026? |
0d20147c22a4e945c6537897 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will ICC Trial Chamber VI convict Mahamat Said Abdel Kani of at least one charge on 23 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-23T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT"
IMPORT... | 2026-09-23T23:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will ICC Trial Chamber VI convict Mahamat Said Abdel Kani of at least one charge on 23 September 2026? |
dbd67be25a701e9830ce2207 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What policy rate will the Riksbank announce on 24 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T18:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Below 1.75%
B. the outcome be 1.75%
C. the outcome be Above 1.75%
D. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT"
IM... | 2026-09-24T18:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What policy rate will the Riksbank announce on 24 September 2026? |
c928c898473ee06163c73df9 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What cash rate target will the Reserve Bank of Australia announce on 29 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 4.10% or lower
B. the outcome be 4.35%
C. the outcome be 4.60%
D. the outcome be 4.8... | 2026-09-29T16:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What cash rate target will the Reserve Bank of Australia announce on 29 September 2026? |
b02a3a568edfbd47c1490a9e | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What Monetary Policy Rate will the Bank of Ghana announce on 24 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T02:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Below 14.0%
B. the outcome be 14.0%
C. the outcome be Above 14.0%
D. the outcome be NO_OFFIC... | 2026-09-25T02:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What Monetary Policy Rate will the Bank of Ghana announce on 24 September 2026? |
8a9694a900ec63045895987e | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What class band will contain the strongest solar flare reported by NASA DONKI from 23 through 25 September 2026 UTC? (resolved around 2026-09-27T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be NO_FLARES
B. the outcome be A or B
C. the outcome be C
... | 2026-09-27T12:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What class band will contain the strongest solar flare reported by NASA DONKI from 23 through 25 September 2026 UTC? |
20d8d0118c5e22f0b24a4ed6 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many utility patents will the USPTO Electronic Official Gazette issue on 29 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-29T23:59:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or ... | 2026-09-29T23:59:00+08:00 | 3 | How many utility patents will the USPTO Electronic Official Gazette issue on 29 September 2026? |
c75860c6cd377767621c31e1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many PDB entries will have initial release date 23 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-24T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
IMPORTANT: En... | 2026-09-24T12:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many PDB entries will have initial release date 23 September 2026? |
a714b256659d5d377e7c7b04 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many magnitude 6.5 or larger earthquakes will USGS ComCat record from 23 through 28 September 2026 UTC? (resolved around 2026-09-29T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with ... | 2026-09-29T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many magnitude 6.5 or larger earthquakes will USGS ComCat record from 23 through 28 September 2026 UTC? |
f398d437ffad0434946a2ffb | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the NFL Week 3 Thursday Night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers on 24 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Green Bay Packers
B. the outcome be Atlanta Falcons
... | 2026-09-25T14:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the NFL Week 3 Thursday Night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers on 24 September 2026? |
0b88efdfd5843f4fe9cf457f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which team will win the 2026 Laver Cup in London? (resolved around 2026-09-28T06:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Team Europe
B. the outcome be Team World
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_CHAMPION"
IMPORTANT: End with the selected option l... | 2026-09-28T06:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Which team will win the 2026 Laver Cup in London? |
d8fb0a6f63b5234d3be6174d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos bantamweight main event at UFC Fight Night on 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-27T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Raul Rosas Jr.
B. the outcome be Raoni Barcelos
C. the ou... | 2026-09-27T14:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos bantamweight main event at UFC Fight Night on 26 September 2026? |
bf09f049022e0ce51250c8e7 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which side will win the 2026 Presidents Cup at Medinah Country Club? (resolved around 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be United States
B. the outcome be International
C. the outcome be TIE
D. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESUL... | 2026-09-28T12:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Which side will win the 2026 Presidents Cup at Medinah Country Club? |
17b53d2c167690ef5a7505e8 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official scoring margin of Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 3 at Maracana Stadium? (resolved around 2026-09-28T10:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Ravens win by 15+
B. the outcome be Ravens win by 8-14
C. ... | 2026-09-28T10:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What will be the official scoring margin of Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 3 at Maracana Stadium? |
360edf438b3a293b822debf5 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the Elite Women race at the 2026 World Triathlon Championship Finals in Pontevedra? (resolved around 2026-09-27T06:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Cassandre Beaugrand
B. the outcome be Taylor Knibb
C. the outcome be Beth P... | 2026-09-27T06:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Who will win the Elite Women race at the 2026 World Triathlon Championship Finals in Pontevedra? |
cdd4632407eb15a4bf8f9fe8 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many total points will the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos score in their NFL Week 3 Sunday Night game? (resolved around 2026-09-28T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, w... | 2026-09-28T14:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many total points will the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos score in their NFL Week 3 Sunday Night game? |
24d0ab5ee263d8e108708f8f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many total runs will the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox score in their regular-season finale at Fenway Park on 27 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the... | 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many total runs will the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox score in their regular-season finale at Fenway Park on 27 September 2026? |
63c49c03bc96d9f2c23e016b | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official winning time in the Elite Men race at the 2026 World Triathlon Championship Finals in Pontevedra? (resolved around 2026-09-28T06:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement... | 2026-09-28T06:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What will be the official winning time in the Elite Men race at the 2026 World Triathlon Championship Finals in Pontevedra? |
008e334c31fb8361852d712a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which five riders will finish first through fifth in the Men Elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships in Montreal? (resolved around 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the set... | 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which five riders will finish first through fifth in the Men Elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships in Montreal? |
59433fc3030fde3a24807c5a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official winning gun time for the first male runner at the 2026 BMW BERLIN-MARATHON? (resolved around 2026-09-27T22:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no uni... | 2026-09-27T22:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What will be the official winning gun time for the first male runner at the 2026 BMW BERLIN-MARATHON? |
39e3908dceaef37242ee86c8 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official winning time in the Women Elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships in Montreal? (resolved around 2026-09-27T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement c... | 2026-09-27T08:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What will be the official winning time in the Women Elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships in Montreal? |
41d605c7089ec5d842a5a648 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will NOAA SPC list at least one filtered tornado report for the convective day of 25 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-27T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE"
IMPORTA... | 2026-09-27T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will NOAA SPC list at least one filtered tornado report for the convective day of 25 September 2026? |
c2493fac02dd09f2b4ad2291 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will JMA report a daily maximum temperature of at least 26.0 degrees Celsius at Tokyo station on 24 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, 26.0 C or higher
B. the outcome be No, below 26.0 C... | 2026-09-25T12:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will JMA report a daily maximum temperature of at least 26.0 degrees Celsius at Tokyo station on 24 September 2026? |
cb7cd10c6c8bb780e5e0be80 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What share of the contiguous United States will the U.S. Drought Monitor place in D1-D4 drought on the map valid 22 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-25T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Below 55.0%
B. the outcome be 55.0% to 5... | 2026-09-25T08:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What share of the contiguous United States will the U.S. Drought Monitor place in D1-D4 drought on the map valid 22 September 2026? |
2fd5a86c962f8e1b4ac1eec1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What daily precipitation total will JMA report at Osaka station on 25 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-26T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 0.0 mm
B. the outcome be 0.5 to 4.5 mm
C. the outcome be 5.0 to 19.5 mm
D. the outcome... | 2026-09-26T12:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What daily precipitation total will JMA report at Osaka station on 25 September 2026? |
8653edaa54242492bc7c1198 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Into which band will the number of volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS' Mayon Volcano bulletin dated 26 September 2026 fall? (resolved around 2026-09-26T18:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 0-4
B. the outcome be 5-14
C. the outcome be 15-29... | 2026-09-26T18:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Into which band will the number of volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS' Mayon Volcano bulletin dated 26 September 2026 fall? |
cb0fde4448bd0419b7b81c95 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many filtered wind reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 24 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-26T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or c... | 2026-09-26T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many filtered wind reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 24 September 2026? |
3ea84c08ac76138ae5d110b6 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What maximum temperature will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Canberra Airport on 25 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-26T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract,... | 2026-09-26T16:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What maximum temperature will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Canberra Airport on 25 September 2026? |
fb915db8d9ec66583aaf4aee | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many new large incidents will NICC report in the 27 September 2026 Incident Management Situation Report? (resolved around 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with... | 2026-09-28T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many new large incidents will NICC report in the 27 September 2026 Incident Management Situation Report? |
e9bd2d0f838afeb1f1484a75 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Rank Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo, Fukuoka, and Naha from highest to lowest JMA daily maximum temperature on 25 September 2026. (resolved around 2026-09-26T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement co... | 2026-09-26T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Rank Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo, Fukuoka, and Naha from highest to lowest JMA daily maximum temperature on 25 September 2026. |
82b021f17d00e1a1e6ca8f2d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What are the NOAA region numbers of the five largest active solar regions by corrected area in SWPC's 26 September 2026 Solar Region Summary? (resolved around 2026-09-27T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required... | 2026-09-27T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What are the NOAA region numbers of the five largest active solar regions by corrected area in SWPC's 26 September 2026 Solar Region Summary? |
Submission Guidelines — Weekly Prediction Challenge
📄 Technical Report: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.11987 🌐 LeaderBoard: https://futurex-ai.github.io/
We run a weekly real-time prediction challenge. This repo always contains latest events.
1. Weekly Rules
- A new set of tasks is released every week.
- This week's tasks cover events with an end time between
2026-09-23, 24:00 (UTC+8)and2026-09-29, 24:00 (UTC+8). - You must download the tasks, make predictions, and email us your results before Wednesday 24:00 (UTC+8) each week.
- Late submissions will not be counted.
- The leaderboard for this round will be updated by
2026-10-01 24:00 (UTC+8, Beijing Time).
⚠️ Next submission deadline: 2026-09-23, 24:00 (UTC+8, Beijing Time)
2. How to Participate?
Download the latest tasks from our dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/futurex-ai/Futurex-Online
Run your model on the tasks.
Email your predictions to FutureX-ai@outlook.com before the deadline.
Email subject format:
FutureX Challenge Submission — [Your Model Name][Date]
Submission requirements:
- File format: JSON (or JSONL)
- Include dataset commit/hash you used
- Required fields:
id,prediction
Note: Predictions can be in various formats including single letters (A, B, C), letter combinations (A, C, D), text in any language, numbers, or empty strings. The prediction should exactly match the format expected by the specific event question.
3. Leaderboard and Privacy
- Weekly results will be ranked and shown on a dynamic leaderboard by default.
- You can choose to keep it private or make it public.
- Downloads last month
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